Global Construction Outlook to 2022 – Q4 2018 Update

Summary

GlobalData has revised downwards the forecast for growth in the global construction industry over the forecast period (2018-2022) to an annual average of 3.4% from 3.6% previously. The revision primarily reflects a weaker estimated outturn in 2018 in China and South Korea, which has pulled the forecast for growth in North-East Asia to 3.4%, as well as a flatter growth trend in the US. In real value terms (measured at constant 2017 prices and US$ exchange rates), global construction output is forecast to rise to US$12.9 trillion in 2022, up from US$10.9 trillion in 2017.

There are intensifying downside risks to global economic growth, notably stemming from the erupting trade war between the US and China, but the global economy will continue to expand in the range of 2.5% to 3% a year in 2018-2022. The tightening in monetary policy in major markets will push up the cost of borrowing, but given that interest rates are generally at or near historical lows, this process is not expected to have a major impact on construction activity during the early part of the forecast period. Construction output growth will improve remain at 3.1% in 2018, unchanged from the rate recorded in 2017, before accelerating to 3.5% in 2019.

This report provides a detailed analysis of the prospects for the global construction industry up to 2022.

Key Highlights

– In the US, President Trump hopes to speed up growth in the US economy by cutting taxes, slashing regulation and increasing infrastructure spending; so far, however, much of Trump’s economic agenda has not made it through Congress. GlobalData remains bearish over the political reality of the expanded US$1.5 trillion infrastructure plan, and does not expect to see such an enormous investment. Nevertheless, the construction outlook for the US in 2018-2019 remains solid, and GlobalData expects to see ongoing investment in the sector over the forecast period.
– Growth in emerging markets will remain in excess of that in advanced economies over the forecast period, and will steadily gather pace in 2018-2020. Although construction output growth in China is set to slow, to average 4.0% in 2018-2022, this will be offset by an acceleration in construction growth in India. The expansion in advanced economies will remain stable, at 2.0% in 2019-2020 before easing back over the remainder of the forecast period.
– The Asia-Pacific region will continue to account for the largest share of the global construction industry, given that it includes the large markets of China, Japan and India. The pace of growth will slow, however, given the projected slowdown in China’s construction industry as well as weakness in South Korea. China’s government is expected to try to curb excessive investment and avoid a disorderly debt crisis, and as such is likely to reduce its spending on major infrastructure projects.
– Construction activity is gathering momentum across Western Europe. The region’s output will expand by 2.4% a year on average in 2018-2022, improving on the sluggish growth of 1.3% in 2013-2017. The expansion in the UK is subject to major downside risks in the face of uncertainty relating to the outcome of its exit from the EU. Monetary policy within the EU will remain accommodating for much of the forecast period, given subdued inflationary pressures and moderate levels of economic growth.
– There were sharp contractions in construction output in many Eastern European countries in 2016, due to stalled EU funds. There was a sharp reversal in 2017, however, and assuming EU funding continues to flow, the region will expand by 4.3% over the forecast period. The weakness in Russia’s economy will continue to weigh on the country’s construction industry, but investment in road and rail projects in addition to a recovery in the oil and gas sector will support a recovery in Russia’s construction output.
– The Middle East and Africa region as a whole will be the fastest growing in 2018-2022, with an annual average growth of 6.0%. Countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) have suffered from weakness in oil prices in recent years, as government revenues have been greatly reduced. Assuming oil prices stay relatively high, large-scale investment in infrastructure projects – mostly related to transport – will be a key driving force behind the growth in the region.
– The pace of growth in sub-Saharan Africa will be particularly strong, averaging 6.6% a year in 2018-2022. There will be a steady acceleration in construction activity in Nigeria over the forecast period to 2022, supported by government efforts to revitalize the economy by focusing on developing the country’s infrastructure. Ethiopia will be Africa’s star performer, with its construction industry continuing to improve in line with the country’s economic expansion.
– Construction activity in Latin America contracted in 2017, reflecting declines in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia and Chile. There will be an improvement in 2018, with the region growing by 1.2% in real terms, but the expansion will continue to be subject to downside risks, with fragile recoveries in Brazil and Mexico. Having expanded rapidly in 2017 and early 2018, there has been an abrupt halt to the pace of construction output in Argentina amid a major corruption scandal and a deterioration in economic stability.

Scope

– An overview of the outlook for the global construction industry to 2022
– Analysis of the outlook for the construction industry in major global regions: North America, Latin America, Western Europe, Eastern Europe, South and South-East Asia, North-East Asia, Australasia, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
– A comprehensive benchmarking of 92 leading construction markets according to construction market value and growth
– Analysis of the latest data on construction output trends in key markets.

Reasons to buy

– Evaluate regional construction trends from insight on output values and forecast data to 2022. Identify the fastest growers to enable assessment and targeting of commercial opportunities in the markets best suited to strategic focus.
– Identify the drivers in the global construction market and consider growth in emerging and developed economies. Formulate plans on where and how to engage with the market while minimizing any negative impact on revenues.