The Q112 BMI Poland Retail Report forecasts that the country’s total retail sales will increase by nearly 26% in local currency terms between 2011 and 2015, growing from a predicted PLN420.77bn (US$159.62bn) to PLN528.71bn (US$200.57bn). Rising disposable income, consumers seeking more choices, low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains and increased car ownership are key factors behind retail market expansion. EU membership since 2004 and increasing amounts of foreign direct investment (FDI) have enabled retailers to make significant inroads into the Polish market, contributing to forecast average annual retail sales growth of 6.2%

Poland Retail Market Report Q1 2012

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Poland’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$547.77bn in 2011, up from US$470.59bn in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 4.0% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population expected to increase slightly, from 38.3mn in 2011 to 38.4mn by 2015, GDP per capita is forecast to rise by nearly 40% by 2015, reaching US$20,007.

With 38mn people, Poland is the biggest market among the new EU countries. The population is also one of the most youthful in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), with more than 38% of all citizens in 2010 in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales, according to the UN Population Division data.

In 2008, according to the Polish Central Statistical Office (GUS), the biggest increase in sales (38.7%) came from retailers selling clothes and footwear. Retailers selling furniture, radio and television equipment and household appliances recorded an increase of 28.8%. Other groups with high sales were books and stationery (20.9%), and pharmaceuticals, cosmetics and orthopaedic equipment (15.8%).

The trend for increased spending on non-essential, non-food items is a reflection of the maturing of the Polish retail market as it begins to track Western European purchasing trends more closely. Teenagers and young adults in particular are driving fashion sales in Poland.

Retail sub-sectors that are likely to achieve steady growth over the period include automotives, with BMI forecasting that sales will rise from a predicted 351,353 units in 2011 to 448,872 units by 2015, an increase of nearly 28%, with Poland outperforming its EU peers.

Consumer electronic sales are forecast to rise by nearly 30%, from a predicted US$7.35bn in 2011 to US$9.50bn in 2015. The market offers continued growth potential due to relatively low penetration in product groups such as computers and digital cameras – at about 30% and 25% of the population respectively.

Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are expected to grow by over a third, from US$3.14bn in 2011 to US$4.22bn by 2015.

BMI food consumption data suggest that the food retail segment will have a market share of 40.0% in 2011. The sub-sector is forecast to be worth US$63.81bn in 2011 and sales are expected to grow by 35.0% to US$86.12bn by 2015. Our forecasts suggest an increase in the retail market share of food to 42.9% by 2015.

Mass grocery retail (MGR) sales are forecast to be US$28.00bn in 2011 and are expected to grow much faster than overall food sales throughout the forecast period, by nearly 52% to US$43.63bn by 2015. This would take MGR’s share of the overall food market from 44.6% in 2011 to 50.1% by the end of the forecast period. Poland is one of the key MGR markets in the CEE region. With disposable incomes rising, more Polish consumers are converting to modern retail formats.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,275bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,185bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to remain fairly stable through to 2015.