Through to 2008, tourist arrivals to Australia had been steadily growing since 2004. In 2003, arrival numbers fell by 1% due to concern over the SARS pandemic. In 2004, 4.77mn tourists visited Australia and by 2008 that number had increased to 5.45mn. In 2009, however, tourist arrivals fell by 2.1% yearon- year (y-o-y) to 5.33mn. Before 2009, Australia’s tourism growth was helped by the weakness of the Australian dollar, which increased the country’s price competitiveness from major source destinations such as the UK and New Zealand. However, since the dollar strengthened in 2009 and 2010 it has negatively affected the industry’s price competitiveness. Tourism was also affected by the global recession in 2009 as discretionary spending was reined in and businesses cut costs, including on international conferences. About a quarter of all arrivals to Australia are business travellers, with 1.58mn forecast to arrive in 2012 for business purposes and 3.35mn travelling for leisure.
For 2010 and 2011, BMI calculates tourist arrivals rebounded to 5.58mn and 5.75mn respectively. We forecast tourist arrivals to reach 5.89mn in 2012 and to rise to 6.74mn by 2016. Tourism expenditure fell in 2009 to US$28.72bn from US$31.46bn in 2008. However, it is calculated to have recovered strongly in 2010 to US$32.35bn and US$34.30bn in 2011. We forecast increases to US$36.45bn in 2012 and US$48.72bn in 2016. Australia’s tourism industry accounted for 3.0% of GDP in 2008 but this dropped to 2.9% in 2009. It is expected to slowly climb back to its 2007 high of 3.5% by the end of the forecast period.
The majority of tourists come to Australia from the Asia Pacific region, followed by Europe and North America. Inbound tourism from Asia Pacific has increased strongly since 2001, when just over 3mn people visited Australia, to reach over 4.15mn in 2012. Arrivals from the region are forecast to continue growing to more than 4.92mn by 2016. Out of the top 10 source markets for the Australian tourism industry, seven are in the Asia Pacific region. Australia attracts more of its tourists from New Zealand than any other country, followed by the UK and Japan.
India is also becoming an important market for Australia. Minister for Tourism Martin Ferguson said: ‘India is very important to Australia as a tourism opportunity. It is the 10th largest economy and has the second largest population in the world. India is going to go through a significant period of growth, which is going to create opportunities for people to rationally think about travel.’ The ministry launched tourism campaigns in India with Qantas and Singapore Airlines in Q210 and it has a full-time office in Mumbai.
However, attacks on Indian students in Australia in recent years may put downward pressure on arrivals from India. Ferguson said the attacks have not caused a decrease in arrivals as tourists do not visit the ‘difficult suburbs’ where the incidents took place. According to Australia Tourism, there was AUD826mn in total expenditure from the Indian market in 2010. Australia Tourism estimates that India will grow to account for AUD1.5bn of total expenditure by 2020.Over the last decade, Australia’s outbound tourism has become increasingly dominated by New Zealand. Between 2001 and 2012, the number of Australians visiting New Zealand is forecast to double, increasing from 574,500 to 1.07mn. In a distant second place is the US, which 372,600 Australians visited in 2001 and 450,000 visited in 2011. The US was overtaken by the UK in 2011, which attracted 452,000 visitors from Australia in 2011. The other outbound destinations in the top 10 are all in the Asia Pacific region. From 2012 to 2014, departures to the UK are forecast to outpace the US, but the US is forecast to regain its lead in 2015. In 2012, 433,000 Australians are forecast to visit the US, versus 456,000 to the UK.
Published : April 2012 No. of Pages : 56 Price:US$1175
Table Of contents
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Australia Tourism SWOT
Australia Political SWOT
Australia Economic SWOT
Australia Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2016
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016
Expenditure
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact,2009-2016
Inbound Tourism
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Hotels
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Australia’s Security Risk Ratings
South Asia Security Overview
Global Assumptions
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013
Consensus
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%)
Company Profiles
Amalgamated Holdings
Australian Leisure & Hospitality Group
Qantas
Singapore Airlines
Sunland Group
Thakral Holdings
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
Sources
