BMI expects continued growth in China”s freight transport sector as it continues to benefit from the
country”s demand for minerals and raw materials, such as coking coal and iron ore. However, while our
demand outlook remains largely positive, we caution that the possibility of a slowdown in Chinese
economic growth is likely to begin in 2012. Our core view on Chinese growth is that we are past the
boom phase and we are entering a period of much weaker expansion, with headline real GDP growth set
to fall to 7.5% by 2013. While not an outright collapse, sub-8.0% growth is a concern.
The main reason we are calling for a sharp slowdown is our belief that the country”s investment boom has involved a serious misallocation of capital, and as a result is finally set to be unwound in the near term.Among the recent examples we have seen are the boom and bust of high-speed rail as well as the loss of momentum in the housing market, which suggest that the boom is coming to an end. This slowdown in growth will certainly affect demand for the raw materials and minerals shipped on the country”s freight transport network, leading to a reduction in volumes. We could also see a reduction in investment in the country”s freight transport network.
Headline Industry Data
1.2012 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 4.4%.
2.2012 rail freight is forecast to grow by 3.7%.
3.2012 Port of Shanghai throughput is forecast to grow by 2.2%.
4.2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 3.6%.
Key Industry Trends
Qantas Becomes Latest Carrier To Land At Chongqing
Australia”s Qantas is the latest company to launch freighter services to China”s growing air cargo hub in
Chongqing. The carrier is fairly late to the game, with a number of other major air freight operators
having already noted Chongqing”s potential and offering cargo flights to this developing hub. Qantas,
however, already boasts considerable China coverage and Chongqing will be its ninth air freight call in
the country.
China Slowdown View Playing Out At Port Level
BMI highlights that indicators continue to align to back our view of a slowdown in China”s economic
growth, with worries heightened by the negative growth posted by the major export bellwethers.
Container volumes at the ports of Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong all declined in January 2012.
China Slowdown View Playing Out At Port Level
Risks To Outlook
Risks to China”s freight transport sector are primarily to the downside, with our growth projections for all
modes contingent on the strength of the country”s international trade volumes. The increasingly bearish
outlook for the US consumer threatens to dampen the country”s demand for Chinese imports, which will
in turn slow down China”s economic growth. Any slowdown in the Asian country”s economy will result in
a slowdown in Chinese demand for raw material imports, leaving its freight transport sector with
weakened volumes.
China Freight Transport Industry Q3 2012
Published : June 2012 No. of Pages : 75 Price:US$1175
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
China Freight Transport SWOT . 7
China Political SWOT 8
China Economic SWOT . 9
China Business Environment SWOT 10
Industry Trends And Developments 11
Air Freight … 11
Maritime Freight.. 13
Market Overview 16
Industry Forecast … 19
Air 19
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 . 19
Maritime .. 19
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2009-2016 (”000 tonnes) 19
Rail .. 21
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016 … 21
Road . 22
Table: Road Freight, 2007-2016 .. 22
Inland Waterways 22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2007-2016 … 22
Trade 23
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 . 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) .. 23
Table: China”s Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 24
Table: China”s Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 25
Global Oil Products Price Outlook … 26
Table: BMI”s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 26
Political Outlook 34
Domestic Politics I 34
Domestic Politics II … 35
Long-Term Political Outlook 38
Macroeconomic Outlook … 43
Table: China – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 45
Company Profiles .. 46
Jade Cargo International . 46
China Southern (Cargo)… 48
China Railway Container Transport Corporation (CRCTC) … 51
Daqin Railway Company . 53
CR Intermodal . 55
Sinotrans Group … 57
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) .. 60
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) … 64
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data 69
Table: China”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (”000) … 70
Table: China”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71
Table: China”s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 .. 72
Table: China”s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 72
BMI Methodology … 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 73
Transport Industry … 73
Sources 74
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 . 19
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2009-2016 (”000 tonnes) . 19
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016 . 21
Table: Road Freight, 2007-2016 . 22
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2007-2016 . 22
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 . 23
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn) . 23
Table: China”s Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 24
Table: China”s Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) . 25
Table: BMI”s Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 . 26
Table: China – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 45
Table: China”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (”000) . 70
Table: China”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 71
Table: China”s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 72
Table: China”s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 72