Germany Food and Drink Market Report Q1 2012

2011-12-28
Published : Dec-2011

A more challenging global economic environment and the intensifying sovereign debt crisis plaguing the eurozone continue to undermine the outlook for German household consumption growth.

Recent data releases from Germany point to slowing economic activity and suggest that the sharp decline in business confidence witnessed in August 2011 has further to run. Accordingly, we believe that impressive German growth dynamics seen in late 2010 and during the first quarter of 2011 marked the peak of the economic recovery cycle. We now anticipate a more subdued economic growth trajectory and have lowered our 2011 real GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.5% previously.

Germany Food and Drink Market Report Q1 2012

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Headline Industry Data

2011 per capita food consumption = +2.7%; forecast to 2016 = +15.4%

2011 alcoholic drink sales = -0.2%; forecast to 2016 = +1.8%

2011 soft drink sales = +2.2% ; forecast to 2016 = +12.4%

2011 mass grocery retail sales = +5.1%; forecast to 2016 = +28.4%

Key Company Trends

DMK Urges Further Dairy Sector Consolidation: In autumn 2011, dairy giant DMK (formed from the merger of Nordmilch and Humana) reiterated that further consolidation is needed in Germany’s dairy sector to ensure the country can compete in the world’s fast-growing markets for dairy products. The company said DMK should not be the only dairy processor in Germany to drive consolidation in the sector. The company also revealed plans to open a sales office in Shanghai by the end of 2011 as DMK expands its presence in the fast-growing Chinese dairy market.

Asset Sale At Metro Could Fund Emerging Markets Cash & Carry Push: The CEO of German retail giant Metro Group, Dr Eckhard Cordes, recently issued a surprise statement to the effect that he will not look to extend his current contract beyond October 2012, when it expires. The announcement followed several weeks of rumours over his future. It had been common knowledge that family-owned Haniel, which holds a 34% stake in Metro, has been unhappy with Cordes’ failure to find a buyer for the firm’s department store and supermarket units, which registered lacklustre growth over the last four years. There is also reported to be a dispute about the management of the company’s consumer electronics unit MediaMarkt-Saturn. Metro is the world’s fourth largest retailer by sales, but there is a strong argument in favour of radical reorganisation and we would attribute this uneasiness on the part of shareholders to lack of progress in this direction.

Key Risks to Outlook

Eurozone Uncertainty: We caution that a sharper deceleration of the global economy in H211 and an escalation of the eurozone sovereign debt crisis – potentially resulting in a disorderly default by Greece or the collapse of a major financial institution in Europe – would present substantial downside risks to our growth forecast.

Export Competitiveness: A deteriorating global economic outlook and the prospect of major fiscal austerity across Europe in the near-to-medium term could see German exports underperform our current projections. This is particularly in light of signs of slowing demand in emerging market economies, such as India and China, countries upon which German exporters have grown increasingly reliant on in recent years.

BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Germany Food Industry SWOT
Germany Drink Industry SWOT
Germany Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT
Business Environment
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views
Table: Food Prices, 2010 And 2011
Table: BMI’s Core Views For The Food & Drink Industry
Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: United Kingdom Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Table: Western Europe Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings – Q112
Germany Food & Drink Business Environment Rating
Macroeconomic Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Food
Food Consumption
Table: Germany Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts
Confectionery
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Drink
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Alcoholic Drinks
Table: Alcoholic Drink Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Hot Drinks
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts
Mass Grocery Retail
Trade
Table: Germany MGR Sector – Sales Value by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Food
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Germany Hit By E.coli Outbreak
Convenience Hits The Spot In Germany
German Organic Food Receives Boost After Dioxin Food Scandal
Arla’s International Ambitions Come To Fruition With Germany’s Hansa-Milch
DMK Urges Further Dairy Sector Consolidation
Dr Oetker Sells Onken Brand
More Retailers Embracing Private Labels
Katjes Looking for Stronger International Growth Following Lamy Lutti Acquisition
German Bakeries Hit Hard Times
Market Overview
Food Sector
Prepared Food
Table: Frozen Fruit And Vegetables
Table: Snack Foods
Table: Pasta
Organic
Dairy
Table: Dairy
Table: Meat
Table: Fish
Table: Oils And Fats
Drink
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Consolidation Moves In Soft Drinks
Carlsberg Sells German Brewery, Further Consolidation Likely
BMI Sees Merit Of CCE Expanding Into Germany
German Wines Eye Asian Markets
Domestic Wine Demand Resilient
Market Overview
Soft Drinks
Alcoholic Drinks
Mass Grocery Retail
Key Industry Trends And Developments
Metro CEO Bows to Pressure; BMI Believes More Radical Reorganisation Needed
Tengelmann Distances Itself From A&P In US
Grocery Retail Competition Probe Launched
Discount Sector Faces Possible Resurgence From Supermarkets
Expansion Across Sectors To Hedge Bets
Market Overview
Table: Structure Of Germany’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets
Table: Structure Of Germany’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Format By Value (US$bn)
Table: Structure Of Germany’s Mass Grocery Retail Market – Sales Format By Value (EURmn)
Table: Annual Average Sales Per Outlet By Format – 2009
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players in Germany’s Food Sector (2008)
Table: Key Players in Germany’s Drink Sector (2008)
Table: Key Players In Germany’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector
Company Monitor
Food
Oetker Group
DMK
Haribo
Lieken Group
Drink
Emig GmbH & Co KG (GerberEmig Group)
Radeberger Group (Oetker Group)
Anheuser-Busch InBev Germany
Mass Grocery Retail
Lidl Group
Rewe Group
BMI Methodology
Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings
Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Limits Of Potential Returns
Table: Risks To Realisation Of Potential Returns
Weighting
Table: Weighting
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary
Food & Drink
Mass Grocery Retail
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting And Sourcing
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sourcing
Filed in: Food & Beverage, Food Service
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