Published : Mar-2012
BMI View: Statistical data shows that construction and infrastructure activity in India remained weak
through the first nine months of FY2011/12 (April-March), justifying our view of a prolonged soft patch
for the Indian construction sector in FY2011/12. Going into FY2012/13, however, we believe that the
sector’s fortunes will start to improve, with monetary conditions providing an additional tailwind for the
12th Five-Year Plan. We are forecasting real growth for the construction sector to reach 7.2% iFY12/13 and average 8.1% between FY13/14 and FY16/17.
for the Indian construction sector in FY2011/12. Going into FY2012/13, however, we believe that the
sector’s fortunes will start to improve, with monetary conditions providing an additional tailwind for the
12th Five-Year Plan. We are forecasting real growth for the construction sector to reach 7.2% iFY12/13 and average 8.1% between FY13/14 and FY16/17.
Key drivers affecting growth include:
1. In November 2011, the Indian government had announced that it would defer starting
operations on a US$2.6bn nuclear power plant in Kudankulam, due to ongoing negotiations
with local residents opposing the project. According to NPCIL, the first reactor was
originally scheduled to commence operations in December 2011, but the Fukushima nuclear
crisis in Japan has intensified local opposition towards the Kudankulam plant, with food
supplies and personnel prevented from entering the project site, located in the state of Tamil Nadu. The completion of an safety study failed to appease local opposition.
operations on a US$2.6bn nuclear power plant in Kudankulam, due to ongoing negotiations
with local residents opposing the project. According to NPCIL, the first reactor was
originally scheduled to commence operations in December 2011, but the Fukushima nuclear
crisis in Japan has intensified local opposition towards the Kudankulam plant, with food
supplies and personnel prevented from entering the project site, located in the state of Tamil Nadu. The completion of an safety study failed to appease local opposition.
2. In December 2011, the India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited (IIFCL) announced
plans to join forces with a group of private banks to launch a US$1bn infrastructure debt
fund (IDF) by the end of February 2012. The fund, which was approved by the Indian
Finance Ministry on December 3 2011, would be led by IIFCL and co-sponsored by a
combination of foreign banks – HSBC , the Asian Development Bank (ADB) – and local
banks – IDBI Bank and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC).
plans to join forces with a group of private banks to launch a US$1bn infrastructure debt
fund (IDF) by the end of February 2012. The fund, which was approved by the Indian
Finance Ministry on December 3 2011, would be led by IIFCL and co-sponsored by a
combination of foreign banks – HSBC , the Asian Development Bank (ADB) – and local
banks – IDBI Bank and Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC).
3. In December 2011,t Indian government gave its provisional approval to 11 proposed sites for
new nuclear power facilities, reports newkerala.com. The largest plant to receive ‘inprinciple’
approval is located at Jaitapur in Maharashtra and will have a total capacity of
9900MW
new nuclear power facilities, reports newkerala.com. The largest plant to receive ‘inprinciple’
approval is located at Jaitapur in Maharashtra and will have a total capacity of
9900MW
4. In January 2012, the Indian government initiated a new stimulus plan, requiring 17 stateowned
companies to utilise their reserves to invest in infrastructure and energy assets in
FY2012/13. The plan opens up a considerable new source of capital for India’s infrastructure
sector (approximately US$35bn) and could address the government’s lack of fiscal ability to
increase infrastructure spending.
companies to utilise their reserves to invest in infrastructure and energy assets in
FY2012/13. The plan opens up a considerable new source of capital for India’s infrastructure
sector (approximately US$35bn) and could address the government’s lack of fiscal ability to
increase infrastructure spending.
Published: March 2012 No. of Pages: 151 Price: US$530
Table of Content
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis . 6
India Tourism SWOT . 6
India Political SWOT . 7
India Economic SWOT … 8
India Business Environment SWOT … 9
Industry Forecast Scenario … 10
Arrivals . 10
Table: Arrivals, 2008-2015 .. 10
Expenditure … 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 … 11
Inbound Tourism … 11
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2008-2015 … 12
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2008-2015 . 17
Market Overview – Travel .. 18
Commercial Airlines . 18
Focus On Jet Airways … 19
Focus On Kingfisher Airlines 20
Low-Cost Carriers 20
Table: Selected Airlines’ Domestic Market Share, 2010 .. 21
Improving Infrastructure .. 21
Cruises .. 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook … 23
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 29
Hotels 29
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 30
Accommodation Developments . 30
Gaming . 32
Medical Tourism … 32
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update … 34
Business Environment Outlook 36
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 36
BMI’s Security Ratings . 36
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 37
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
India’s Security Ratings 38
South Asia Security Overview … 40
South Asia In A Global Context … 40
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security… 41
External Power Dynamics … 50
Outlook For South Asia … 53
Global Assumptions .. 55
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 … 55
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) … 56
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013 … 56
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 57
Developed States .. 57
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 58
Emerging Markets … 58
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013 … 59
Consensus 60
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%) 60
Company Profiles … 61
Jet Airways .. 61
National Aviation Company of India (Air India) .. 63
Taj Hotels 65
BMI Methodology … 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts … 66
Tourism Industry .. 66
Tourism Ratings – Methodology .. 67
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators … 68
Table: Weighting of Components . 69
Sources 69
SWOT Analysis . 6
India Tourism SWOT . 6
India Political SWOT . 7
India Economic SWOT … 8
India Business Environment SWOT … 9
Industry Forecast Scenario … 10
Arrivals . 10
Table: Arrivals, 2008-2015 .. 10
Expenditure … 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015 … 11
Inbound Tourism … 11
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2008-2015 … 12
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2008-2015 . 17
Market Overview – Travel .. 18
Commercial Airlines . 18
Focus On Jet Airways … 19
Focus On Kingfisher Airlines 20
Low-Cost Carriers 20
Table: Selected Airlines’ Domestic Market Share, 2010 .. 21
Improving Infrastructure .. 21
Cruises .. 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook … 23
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 29
Hotels 29
Table: Hotels Data, 2007-2015 30
Accommodation Developments . 30
Gaming . 32
Medical Tourism … 32
H5N1 And H1N1 Virus Update … 34
Business Environment Outlook 36
Table: Asia Pacific Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings . 36
BMI’s Security Ratings . 36
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings . 37
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 38
India’s Security Ratings 38
South Asia Security Overview … 40
South Asia In A Global Context … 40
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security… 41
External Power Dynamics … 50
Outlook For South Asia … 53
Global Assumptions .. 55
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 … 55
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% change y-o-y) … 56
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2013 … 56
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 . 57
Developed States .. 57
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 . 58
Emerging Markets … 58
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth. 2010-2013 … 59
Consensus 60
Table: BMI And Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011 And 2012 (%) 60
Company Profiles … 61
Jet Airways .. 61
National Aviation Company of India (Air India) .. 63
Taj Hotels 65
BMI Methodology … 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts … 66
Tourism Industry .. 66
Tourism Ratings – Methodology .. 67
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators … 68
Table: Weighting of Components . 69
Sources 69