Tourism Overview

Following slight negative growth in foreign arrivals during H111, compared with H110, growth recovered in recent months, resulting in a 1.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) increase in visitors in the first nine months of 2011, according to provisional customs data (which include same-day arrivals). Around 57% of total visitors in the period January to September were from the EU. The main source markets in the EU were (in order of importance): Hungary (about 35% of the total), Bulgaria (18%), Germany (9%), Italy (8%) and Poland (6%). Over the same nine-month period, Romanian resident departures abroad increased just below 1.0% y-o-y.

Romania Tourism Market Report Q1 2012

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Hospitality

Latest provisional data for 9M11 show a relatively favourable pick-up in growth in the hospitality sector, with solid performances by domestic and foreign tourism. The total number of tourist nights in all accommodation establishments was up 12.5% y-o-y. Nights by foreign tourists increased by nearly 11% y-o-y (overnight stays by foreign visitors accounted for around 17% of all nights). Domestic tourist nightsperformed even better, rising about 13% y-o-y. The strong recovery was boosted by substantial growth in July and August 2011, with total nights up about 27% and over 23% y-o-y respectively. Foreign tourist nights also rose 12% and 14% y-o-y respectively, over the same two-month period.

Forecast Scenario

BMI’s annual growth forecasts for foreign arrivals in 2011 and 2012 have been revised down slightly this quarter, to about 2% and 3% respectively (growth rates in the hospitality sector should be more favourable however). The forecasts are more subdued mainly due to downward revisions to our economic outlook for the major source region, the eurozone. Real GDP growth is now expected to slow to 1.7% and 1.2% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, although growth should accelerate in 2013. Our growth forecasts for Germany have also been lowered to 3.1% in 2011, slowing sharply in 2012 to 1.3%. Further, we have reduced growth forecasts for Hungary (a key source market), to 2.0% and 2.6% in 2011 and 2012 respectively. Despite the weakness of the leu, BMI maintains its view of an appreciation trend against the euro over the short term, constraining growth in foreign tourism.

Tarom

In the wake of the national flag carrier Tarom recording a substantial annual increase in passenger numbers in 2010 of about 24%, figures for scheduled passenger traffic for the period January-August 2011 are particularly muted, with numbers down just over 3% y-o-y.

Blue Air

Romanian low-cost carrier Blue Air commenced a service between Bacau and Brussels in May and, in July 2011, and offered another new destination: direct flights between Dublin and Cluj. In 2012 the airline will launch flights from Bacau to Catania.

Danubius Hotels Group

Latest figures for H111 for Hungary’s Danubius Hotels Group show a reasonable 6% increase in revenue for Romanian hotels (in Hungarian forint terms), compared with the corresponding period in 2010, mainly due to a recovery in occupancy rates. The operating result over the period was a loss of HUF45mn (US$0.2mn), which was basically unchanged year-on-year. The number of guests during H111was up a solid 14% on H110, to over 19,000 (with increased conference tourism), while hotel occupancy rates increased slightly to 47.3%.

Hilton Worldwide

Hilton Worldwide’s DoubleTree brand made its debut in Romania, with the 88-room DoubleTree by Hilton Bucharest-Unirii Square in the Romanian capital in Q311 – the group’s third hotel in the country. Hilton plans to open two more Romanian DoubleTree by Hilton hotels in the cities of Ploiesti and Oradea.