The Q112 BMI Slovenia Retail report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from a projected EUR17.01bn (US$25.03bn) in 2011 to EUR20.59bn (US$30.26bn) by 2015, an increase of nearly 21% in local currency terms. Rising levels of disposable income and the continued development of organised retail infrastructure are key factors behind the forecast growth in Slovenian retail sales.

Slovenia Retail Market Report Q1 2012

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Slovenia’s nominal GDP is predicted to be US$52.1bn in 2011, with growth of 1.1% expected for the year, up from -0.2% in 2010. Average annual GDP growth of 2.8% is forecast by BMI between 2011 and 2015. With the population expected to rise slightly, from 2.0mn in 2011 to 2.1mn by 2016, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 5.3%, from US$25,613 in 2011 to US$27,734 by 2016.

The size of the urban population in Slovenia is unusually small, which partly reflects the absence of large cities resulting from the mountainous terrain. Even in the capital city, Ljubljana, there are fewer than 300,000 residents. The average age in the country, at 41 years, is also high compared with other European countries. Both of these factors work against retailers. However, unemployment has been trending lower since 2010’s peak of 11.8%; it is forecast to drop to 11.0% in 2011, and to end the forecast period at 7.0%.

In 2005 almost 71% of the Slovenian population was described by the UN as economically active, but with just 36.6% in the 20-44 age range. Just over half of the Slovenian population, 50.8%, was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to fall to 47.4%, with only 32.9% aged 20- 44. By this time, 68.4% of the population is expected to be economically active.

Using BMI food and drink data, we identify a food and drink market share in 2011 of 20.9% of total retail sales. This is forecast to decline to 16.2% by 2015 as the non-food sector matures.

Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to increase from US$0.106bn in 2011 to US$0.110bn by 2015, a rise of almost 4%. The relatively low cost of OTC medicines should be the key growth driver, as the sector increases its market share at the expense of the prescription drugs market. In the longer run, generational change and better visibility of OTC products will help the self-medication sector develop.

Vehicle sales, meanwhile, are forecast to rise 20.2%, from 70,788 units in 2011 to 85,103 units in 2015, thanks to Renault’s ongoing commitment to the country – and helped by government subsidies.

Retail sales for the BMI universe of CEE countries in 2011 are forecast to amount to US$1,275bn based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database is expected to be US$2,185bn. Russia, Turkey and Poland are predicted to account for an estimated 79% of regional retail sales in 2011, a share that is likely to remain fairly stable through to 2015. Slovenia’s predicted 2011 market share of 1.9% is expected to be at the same level in 2015.