Healthcare may not have been a major concern for Angola’s government – which has prioritised economic development over social development during the years since the civil war ended in 2002 – but with a general election scheduled for September 2012 (an exact date had not been set at the time of writing), BMI expects health and education will receive additional investment in 2012 and 2013 to win votes. For international investors, Angola’s pharmaceuticals and healthcare market holds limited appeal, with low spending, an abundance of counterfeit drugs, considerable operational risks due to little intellectual property(IP) protection or regulation and a burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases its key characteristics.
Headline Expenditure Forecasts Pharmaceuticals: AOA26.78bn (US$286mn) in 2011 to AOA30.02bn (US$320mn) in 2012; +12.1% in local currency and +12.0% in US dollar terms.
Healthcare: AOA480.04bn (US$5.12bn) in 2011 to AOA583.07bn (US$6.22bn) in 2012; +21.5% in local currency and +21.3% in US dollar terms.
Medical Devices: AOA19.06bn (US$203mn) in 2011 to AOA22.43mn (US$239mn) in 2012; +17.7% in local currency and +17.6% in US dollar terms. Risk/Reward Rating: Angola scores 33.3 out of 100 in the Q312 Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) and ranks 27th out of 30 in BMI’s Middle East and Africa (MEA) regional ratings. This is below the regional average of 44.5. Angola has below-average scores in all categories, with the exception of country rewards, for which it has a score of 63 out of 100.
Key Trends And Developments Angola and Vietnam will consider the creation of a bilateral cooperation agreement regarding the production of essential medicines, the purchasing of drugs and training drug production staff, following Vice President Fernando da Peidade’s five-day visit to Vietnam in February.
Esso Exploration Angola and the Exxon Mobile Foundation have provided US$1.5mn in funding for two new maternity hospitals in Cacuaco and Kilamba Kiaxi in Luanda.
In April 2012, Dr Antonia Muangala told state news agency ANGOP that the government plans to open a nuclear medicine centre for the diagnosis and treatment of various diseases.
Angola’s economy is booming, with BMI forecasting double-digit GDP growth of 12.8% in 2012 and a similarly high rate of 10.3% in 2013. Oil continues to be the backbone of Angola’s economic success and its guaranteed revenue will help President José Eduardo dos Santos fund pre- and post-election spending. In order to win voters’ favour, we expect increased investment in education and healthcare over the next two years.
There is likely to be very little change following the general election – only the second since the civil war ended in 2002 – with the governing Movimento Popular de Libertação de Angola (MPLA) certain to achieve a comfortable victory. The transparency of elections remains questionable following the reappointment of Susana Ingles as the head of the National Electoral Commission – the same person who oversaw 2008’s controversial election
Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report of Angola
Published: May 2012 No. of Pages: 43 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Angola Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare SWOT … 7
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings … 8
Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 9
Rewards … 13
Risks . 13
Angola – Market Summary 15
Regulatory Regime 16
Intellectual Property Issues.. 16
Pricing And Reimbursement 16
Regulatory Developments 17
Epidemiology … 17
Clinical Trials Sector … 19
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 20
Overall Market Forecast .. 20
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 21
Key Growth Factors – Industry 22
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 23
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 24
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic … 25
Table: Angola Economic Activity, 2011-2016 .. 28
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario 29
Competitive Landscape 30
Company Developments … 30
Company Profiles .. 32
Demographic Outlook … 33
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) … 34
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) … 35
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 … 36
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1900-2020 36
Glossary . 37
BMI Methodology … 39
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 39
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology .. 40
Ratings Overview . 40
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 41
Weighting . 42
Table: Weighting Of Components 42Table: MEA Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 . 9
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 . 21
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 . 24
Table: Angola Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 28
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) . 34
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) . 35
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 36
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1900-2020 . 36
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators . 41
Table: Weighting Of Components . 42