BMI’s Q212 Bahrain Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will rise from an expected BHD0.59bn (US$1.56bn) in 2012 to BHD0.80bn (US$2.11bn) by 2016, boosted by a growing interest in Western styles of retailing and a steady rise in disposable incomes. However, this assumes that the ongoing political crisis that has weighed on the country’s short-term economic outlook is resolved over the medium to long term. Bahrain’s nominal GDP in 2012 is forecast to be US$23.33bn, rising to US$31.77bn in 2016. Real GDP growth is expected to be 3.4% in 2012, up from just 1.9% in 2011. Average annual GDP growth of 4.6% is predicted by BMI between 2012 and 2016.

Statistics from the Ministry of Culture and Information’s tourism affairs division show that tourist arrivals rose by an annual average of 10-15% over the past three years. In 2007, Bahrain attracted 5.5mn tourists, 4.9mn of them from other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries. However, Bahrain Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) tourism committee chairman Nabeel Kanoo stated in February 2012 that Bahrain’s hotels and tourism businesses have suffered a 40% drop in revenue over the past year. The chairman believes that unfair reporting and ‘misinformation’ by foreign journalists is harming Bahrain’s tourism industry, resulting in cruise cancellations.

The annual Formula One (F1) Grand Prix in Sakhir has generated hundreds of millions of dollars in revenue since it became a fixture on the racing calendar in 2004, and its cancellation in 2011 undoubtedly had a knock-on effect on retail sales. However, its reinstatement on the 2012 F1 calendar – albeit as the fourth race of the season rather than the opener – is good news for the retail sector. In 2005, 71.2% of the Bahraini population was described by the UN as economically active, with 40.7% in the 20-44 age range crucial for retail sales. In 2010, 72.7% of the population was estimated to be economically active but the proportion of those in the 20-44 age band fell by 39.9%.

The very high level of urbanisation in Bahrain is an important factor. In 2005, more than 90% of the population was classified by the UN as urban and this rose to an estimated 91% in 2010. About 89% of the population live in the cities of Manama and Muharraq. Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include automotives, with sales forecast to rise from an expected 51,146 units in 2012 to 59,460 units by 2016. However, 2011 was difficult, with H111 sales down by 50-70% on the same period a year earlier, according to Gulf News.

With the Bahraini consumer electronics market well positioned to function as an electronics trading hub, particularly between India and the Far East, sales are predicted to increase from an expected US$667mn in 2012 to US$837mn by the end of the forecast period. Over-the-counter pharmaceutical sales are forecast to rise from US$0.03bn in 2012 to US$0.04bn by 2016.

Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2012 are predicted to amount to US$367.85bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region, based on BMI’s macroeconomic database, is forecast at US$1.0trn. In 2012, BMI predicts that South Africa and Saudi Arabia will together account for an estimated 66.6% of regional retail sales, with Israel accounting for a further 11.7%. By 2016, the combined share of South Africa and Saudi Arabia is expected to amount to 65.4%. Bahrain’s predicted 2012 market share of 0.4% is expected to remain at this level throughout the forecast period. We put growth in regional retail sales for the period from 2012 to 2016 at 42.1%, or an average 14.7% per annum.

Published : April 2012                      No. of Pages : 71                   Price: US$1175 

 Table Of contents

Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bahrain Retail Business Environment SWOT
Bahrain Political SWOT
Bahrain Economic SWOT
Market Overview
Current Trends
Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Consumer Outlook
Retail Growth Outlook
Table: Bahrain Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2015
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f
Macroeconomic Outlook
Regional Retail Outlook
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn)
Table: % Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016
Current Trends
Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Bahrain’s Retail Ratings
Limits To Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns
Mass Grocery Retail
Bahrain Food Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016
Industry Developments
Consumer Electronics
Bahrain Consumer Electronics Market SWOT
Market Overview
Computers
Table: PC Sales, 2008-2016
AV
Table: AV Sales, 2008-2016
Mobile Handsets
Table: Mobile Communications, 2008-2016
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016
Industry Developments
Automotives
Bahrain Auto Industry SWOT
Market Overview
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector – Key Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Bahrain – Autos Industry, 2010-2016
Industry Developments
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Sources