The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Bahrain’s economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible prolonged downturn in hydrocarbon prices on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Bahrain per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 32% through to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 7%.
The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI’s Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 47% between 2012 and 2016, from US$1.12bn to US$1.65bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain’s business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI projects the Bahrain economy to expand by 2.5% in real terms in 2012, down from our previous forecast of 3.4%, as the economic recovery only gradually gathers steam. Elevated government consumption and an ongoing improvement in the net export position will bolster headline growth at a time when fixed investment activity remains muted.
- BMI forecasts that household consumption will tick higher in 2012, expanding by an estimated 8.0% year-on-year (y-o-y), particularly on the heels of recent hikes to public-sector salaries. Latest data from the central bank has been encouraging in this regard, showing the total stock of credit outstanding expanding by more than 10.0% y-o-y in the latter months of 2011, compared with the low single digits posted earlier in the year.
Published: July 2012 No. of Pages: 73 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Bahrain Retail Business Environment SWOT . 6
Bahrain Political SWOT 7
Bahrain Economic SWOT . 7
Market Overview 8
Current Trends 9
Key Players 12
Industry Forecast Scenario . 14
Consumer Outlook 14
Retail Growth Outlook . 17
Table: Bahrain Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 17
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f 19
Macroeconomic Outlook 19
Table: Bahrain – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 21
Regional Retail Outlook . 22
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016 22
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) . 22
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) 23
Current Trends 24
Risk/Reward Ratings . 33
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Bahrain’s Retail Rating 34
Limits To Potential Returns 34
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 35
Mass Grocery Retail 36
Bahrain Mass Grocery Retail SWOT 36
Market Overview 37
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 38
Industry Developments . 38
Consumer Electronics 41
Bahrain Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 41
Market Overview 42
Computers 42
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 42
AV 45
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 45
Mobile Handsets 48
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 . 48
Industry Forecast Scenario 52
Bahrain Retail Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2008-2016 53
Industry Developments . 54
Automotives 56
Bahrain Auto Industry SWOT . 56
Market Overview 57
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector – Key Players 60
Industry Forecast Scenario 61
Table: Bahrain – Autos Sales, 2009-2016 61
Table: Bahrain – Autos Trade, 2009-2016 61
Industry Developments . 65
Demographic Outlook 67
Table: Bahrain”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (”000) . 68
Table: Bahrain”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 69
Table: Bahrain”s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 70
Table: Bahrain”s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 70
BMI Methodology . 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 71
Sources . 72Table: Bahrain Retail Sales Indicators
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment f
Table: Bahrain – Economic Activity
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Sales (US$bn)
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales (%)
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: PC Sales
Table: AV Sales
Table: Mobile Communications
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview
Table: Bahrain Autos Sector – Key Players
Table: Bahrain Autos Sales
Table: Bahrain Autos Trade
Table: Bahrain”s Population By Age Group (”)
Table: Bahrain”s Population By Age Group (% of total)
Table: Bahrain”s Key Population Ratios
Table: Bahrain”s Rural And Urban Population
The Bahrain Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Bahrain’s economic outlook of the ongoing political crisis. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Bahrain retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of a possible prolonged downturn in hydrocarbon prices on the Bahraini consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Bahrain retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market. Bahrain per-capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 32% through to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 7%. The country comes sixth (out of seven) in BMI’s Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk. Among all retail categories, mass grocery retail will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 47% between 2012 and 2016, from US$1.12bn to US$1.65bn, as demand for packaged and convenience foods continues to pick up on the back of busier lifestyles and more Westernised eating habits. In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in Bahrain’s business-friendly regulatory environment, which has succeeded in attracting a number of multinational food companies. Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
