Belarus re-entered the economic crisis in 2011 and became one of the world leaders in terms of price growth. The inflation in the first half of 2011 rose to 34%, according to the Ministry of Economics. In May 2011, Belarus devalued the rouble, as the country lost a quarter of its reserves due to the negative foreign trade balance, and faced a shortage of foreign currency. On May 24th, 2011, the National Bank of Belarus (NBB) announced the devaluation of the official exchange rate of the Belarusian rouble against foreign currencies with the value of national currency decreasing by 56%. Thus, the Belarusian rouble fell to a range of currencies (Euro, US$ and Russian rouble in equal proportions) by 42% since the beginning of the year. In July, the growth of prices slowed down. The Ministry of Economics expects that inflation for the whole of 2011 will not exceed 40%.
Crisis is an opportunity
The economic crisis affected all segments of the economy in Belarus. Leading retailers postponed their expansion plans until the currency crisis ends. Aside from the economic conditions, in 2011 the development of retailing as a whole was hampered by bureaucratic barriers, complexity of tax laws, insufficient infrastructure, and a sharp decrease in disposable incomes for the majority of the population after the devaluation of national currency. Therefore, the opportunities to purchase smaller and weaker players, that have struggled to survive in difficult trading conditions, exists, and are likely to be used by strong retailing chains.
Retailing in Belarus
Published: April 2012
Price : US $ 1900
Experts predict growth of retailing
In spite of the crisis, growth is expected in 2011, both in terms of retail turnover and the increasing numbers of outlets and selling space. The proportion of large-format sites and modern retail outlets are expected to increase. According to industry experts, in February 2011 in various stages of constructions and reconstruction, there was almost 800,000 sq m of total construction area of different retail sites in Minsk and more than 300,000 sq m in the regions. Even if not all declared facilities are introduced by the end of the year due to the crisis, the real supply of retail space is expected to rise considerably.
Grocery versus non-grocery split is indicator of the crisis
The split between grocery and non-grocery products as a percentage of total retailing current value sales in Belarus remained close to 50/50 during the review period. However, this split moved toward being in favour of grocery products during certain times of crisis in Belarus, which was in 2009 and 2011. In 2009, after single large national currency devaluation, the grocery versus non-grocery split changed to 51% against 49%, while in the pre-crisis year of 2008, the split was 50% against 51%. The same trend is expected to result from the crisis of 2011 with the share reverting back to 2009’s figures. Sharp national currency devaluation in May 2011 led consumers to reduce their spending on non-essentials goods and increase spending on essential groceries. In 2011, grocery retailers as a whole is expected to show faster growth in current value sales than non-grocery retailers, while the development of non-grocery retailers’ channels will be hampered by reduced consumer purchasing power and by restricted access to credit with high interest rates.
New mergers and acquisitions expected
Despite the economic crisis, the outlook for retailing in Belarus is generally optimistic. Local retailing remains comparatively underdeveloped, leaving considerable room for potential growth. While the downturn persists and during the initial stages of economic recovery, development is likely to be characterised by a focus on grocery retailing and the expansion of modern retail formats to smaller cities and regional areas. At the same time, the ongoing privatisation of state-owned retail chains will provide further opportunities for mergers and acquisitions.
