Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.

Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting.

The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs.

The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER.

Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.

Q3 2012 Commercial Banking Report of Brazil

Published: May 2012      No. of Pages: 61        Price: US $ 1175 

Table of Contents

Executive Summary . 5
Table: Levels (BRLbn) … 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) … 5
Table: Levels At December 2011 … 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) … 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (BRLbn) … 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) … 6
SWOT Analysis . 7
Brazil Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Brazil Political SWOT … 8
Brazil Economic SWOT . 9
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating . 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings … 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology … 12
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook … 14
Regional Outlooks .. 22
Colombian Banks Still Our Favourite … 22
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 27
Latin America Banking Sector Forecast Overview – Q3 2012 .. 27
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 2011 27
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 27
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 28
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 … 28
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 29
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) .. 29
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields .. 30
Brazil Banking Sector Outlook . 31
Robust Banking Growth In 2012, Slowdown To Follow 31
Economic Outlook .. 35
Table: Brazil – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 37
Competitive Landscape . 38
Market Structure … 38
Protagonists . 38
Table: Protagonists In Brazil’s Commercial Banking Sector … 38
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe . 38
List Of Banks 39
Table: 50 Largest Banks In Brazil … 39
Company Profiles … 41
Itaú Unibanco .. 41
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn, unless stated) .. 42
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 42
Santander . 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 44
Caixa Economica Federal … 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators 46
HSBC … 47
Table: Key Statistics For HSBC Brasil, 2009-2011 (BRLmn) .. 48
Banco Safra . 49
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Safra, 2008-2010 (BRLmn) … 49
Citibank … 50
Banco do Brasil … 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 52
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 52
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 53
Bradesco .. 54
Table: Stock Market Indicators 55
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn, unless stated) .. 56
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) .. 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) .. 56
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 57
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators … 60Table: Levels (BRLbn) . 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) . 5
Table: Levels At December 2011 . 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) . 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 . 6
Table: Projected Levels (BRLbn) . 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) . 6
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 11
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 13
Table: Banks’ Bond Portfolios 2011 . 27
Table: Latin America Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings . 27
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios . 28
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 . 28
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) . 29
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) . 29
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields . 30
Table: Brazil – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 . 37
Table: Protagonists In Brazil’s Commercial Banking Sector . 38
Table: 50 Largest Banks In Brazil . 39
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn, unless stated) . 42
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 42
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 42
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 44
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 46
Table: Key Statistics For HSBC Brasil, 2009-2011 (BRLmn) . 48
Table: Key Statistics For Banco Safra, 2008-2010 (BRLmn) . 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 52
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn) . 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) . 52
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 53
Table: Stock Market Indicators . 55
Table: Balance Sheet (BRLmn, unless stated) . 56
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) . 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) . 56
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale. 59
Table: Weighting Of Indicators . 60″