Canada Agribusiness Report Q3 2012

2012-08-02
Published : Aug-2012

Canada”s involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations has the potential to begin a process that could ultimately see the country”s dairy and poultry supply management system dismantled. After the abolition of the Canadian Wheat Board”s monopoly on grain trading, dairy and poultry could be the next industries to be shaken up. For now, we expect milk, poultry and pork production growth to be mild in 2011/12. We forecast corn output to decline in 2011/12 but to remain strong in the coming years as higher renewable fuel content requirements encourage the construction of new ethanol plants.

Key Trends

  • Corn production growth to 2015/16: 10.7% to 13.0mn tonnes. Large domestic demand growth coming from the livestock sector and higher renewable fuel content requirements will drive output growth.
  • Milk production growth to 2015/16: 6.8% to 9.0 tonnes. Output will increase on the back of continued yield increases and investment in the sector. The recent signs of reconsideration of the supply management system could be beneficial to the industry in the medium term.
  • Poultry consumption growth to 2015/16: 13.7% 1.1mn tonnes. The perceived healthier nature of poultry as well as increasing export opportunities will help to support consumption growth.
  • 2012 real GDP growth: 2.0% year-on-year (y-o-y). Down from 2.5% in 2011; predicted to average 2.4% over 2011-2016.
  • Consumer price inflation: 1.8% y-o-y in 2012. Down from 2.9% in 2011; predicted to average 2.2% over 2011-2016.
  • BMI universe agribusiness market value: 3.9% y-o-y decline to US$23.6bn in 2011/12; forecast to average US$23.8bn between 2010/11 and 2015/16. Industry Outlook Owing to favourable weather and higher global prices in 2011, we expect improved output for Canadian wheat in 2012/13.

There was much speculation regarding the end of the Canadian Wheat Board as sole marketing authority for western wheat (starting on August 1 2012) and its effect on future production. We believe the end of the monopoly is likely to have broader and positive effects for farmers in the coming years, as they could receive higher prices in a more competitive market with several purchasing entities. The industry is also likely to benefit from Canada”s recent free trade agreement with Morocco, which is set to offer Canadian wheat unrestricted access to one of the world”s largest wheat importers. In 2011/12, we are forecasting poultry production to increase slightly driven by demand from the retail sector and as more consumers switch away from beef. The Canadian government announced an investment of more than CAD600,000 into the Atlantic Poultry Institute in order to improve feed and health research.

The investment is aimed at increasing the region”s poultry producers” competitiveness, enabling them to increase quality of their products in order to meet demand from the more healthconscious consumer. This is expected to support production in the longer term, as will increasing export opportunities and high poultry prices. In 2011/12, we forecast mild milk production growth. The number of milk cows in Canada has fallen by 17% over the last decade, but this has been countered by a subsequent increase in yields and greater consolidation at the farm level. BMI believes that Canada”s involvement in the Trans-Pacific Partnership has the potential to begin a process that could ultimately see the country”s dairy and poultry supply management system dismantled. In our view, this could be the catalyst that leads the system to the same fate as the abolished Canada Wheat Board. Over the short term, this development could reduce Canada”s dairy production, but it presents upside risks to our long-term production outlook.

Canada Agribusiness Industry

Published: July 2012                       No. of Pages: 76               Price: US $ 1175

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Table of Contents

Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Canada Agriculture Swot 7
Supply Demand Analysis 8
Canada Sugar Outlook 8
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 8
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 10
Canada Livestock Outlook 10
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 11
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 11
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 12
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 15
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Canada Dairy Outlook . 17
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 201-2016 18
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 201-2016 18
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 201-2016 . 18
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 22
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Canada Grains Outlook 23
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 24
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 24
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 24
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 31
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 31
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 31
Commodity Price Analysis 33
Monthly Softs Update 33
Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue 33
Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb 35
Palm Oil: False Break? 37
Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop . 38
Cotton: Technical Bounce Over? . 39
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 40
Monthly Grains Update 41
Wheat – Deteriorating Supply Prospects 42
Corn – Anticipating US Supply Downgrades . 43
Soybean – Range Trading Ahead 44
Rice – Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check 46
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts 47
Upstream Analysis 48
GM Plantings Growth To Slow, Americas To Remain The Largest Exporter . 48
Americas Fertiliser Quarterly . 52
Canada Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Downstream Analysis 54
Consumer Outlook 54
Food . 55
Food Consumption 55
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 56
Confectionery 56
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 57
Prepared Food 57
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 58
Table: Fish, 2009-2016 58
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016 59
Table: Oils & Fats,2009-2016 60
Drink 62
Alcoholic Drinks 62
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 63
Table: Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 . 63
Hot Drinks 65
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 65
Soft Drinks 65
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 . 66
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 67
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Retail Format Type (%) 67
Trade 68
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 68
Canada Demographic Outlook 69
Table: Canada”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (”000) 70
Table: Canada”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 71
Table: Canada”s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 . 72
Table: Canada”s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 . 72
BMI Forecast Modelling . 73
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts . 73Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 … 8
Table: Canada Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 10
Canada Livestock Outlook 10
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 11
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 … 11
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 12
Table: Canada Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 15
Table: Canada Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 … 16
Table: Canada Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 16
Canada Dairy Outlook .. 17
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 201-2016 . 18
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 201-2016 … 18
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 201-2016 . 18
Table: Canada Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 … 22
Table: Canada Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 22
Table: Canada Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Canada Grains Outlook 23
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 . 24
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 … 24
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 24
Table: Canada Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 . 31
Table: Canada Corn Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 … 31
Table: Canada Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 31
Commodity Price Analysis .. 33
Monthly Softs Update 33
Cocoa: 2012 Outperformance To Continue .. 33
Coffee: Next Support At USc130.0/lb 35
Palm Oil: False Break? 37
Sugar: More Fears Over Brazilian Crop .. 38
Cotton: Technical Bounce Over? .. 39
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 40
Monthly Grains Update 41
Wheat – Deteriorating Supply Prospects … 42
Corn – Anticipating US Supply Downgrades . 43
Soybean – Range Trading Ahead … 44
Rice – Ample Supply To Keep Prices In Check .. 46
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & BMI Forecasts . 47
Upstream Analysis .. 48
GM Plantings Growth To Slow, Americas To Remain The Largest Exporter .. 48
Americas Fertiliser Quarterly 52
Canada Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd Page 4
Downstream Analysis . 54
Consumer Outlook 54
Food .. 55
Food Consumption … 55
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts . 56
Confectionery … 56
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 57
Prepared Food . 57
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 … 58
Table: Fish, 2009-2016 58
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016 . 59
Table: Oils & Fats,2009-2016 .. 60
Drink . 62
Alcoholic Drinks .. 62
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 … 63
Table: Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 . 63
Hot Drinks … 65
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 65
Soft Drinks … 65
Table: Soft Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 .. 66
Mass Grocery Retail . 66
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales by Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 67
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Retail Format Type (%) .. 67
Trade … 68
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 … 68
Canada Demographic Outlook . 69
Table: Canada”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (”000) .. 70
Table: Canada”s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) .. 71
Table: Canada”s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 72
Table: Canada”s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 .. 72
BMI Forecast Modelling .. 73
How We Generate Our I

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