The Caribbean Tourism Report examines the enormous long-term potential of the market, given its reputation as a major tourism destination, but analyses the impact of a slowdown in Europe – one of its major markets – especially as the Caribbean is a relatively expensive holiday destination. The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Caribbean tourism market, capitalising on the region’s wide variety of tourism destinations and well developed tourism infrastructure. The report also assesses differences between the key island groupings and which are recovering more swiftly. We also analyse the key players in the Caribbean market, both domestic and foreign, and the development strategies they are employing to maximise returns during the economic slowdown.
Key Findings
Data released by the Caribbean Tourism Organisation (CTO) in July 2012 showed the region experiencing a mixed first half of the year. Eight countries have so far reported full first-half arrivals data and of those, all but one country (Barbados) registered positive growth. This ranged from high levels of growth in Guyana, Belize and the Dominican Republic – 17.9% year-on-year (y-o-y), 8.5% and 7.7% yo- y respectively – to lower growth, such as 1.6% y-o-y in Martinique.
This is a positive start to the year, given that low season began in March/April, and will have pulled down the average for first-half growth. With the hurricane season (June to October) now approaching, tourism in the hurricane zone countries is likely to remain subdued until the traditional high season begins again in October and in the run-up to Christmas. BMI remains positive regarding the region’s growth prospects in 2012, although we caution that the European economic slowdown will continue to hinder efforts to return to pre-2008 levels of tourism growth.
Focus On Belize
The small country of Belize is on the very edge of the Caribbean, located on the eastern seaboard of the Central American isthmus, bordering Mexico and Guatemala. The English-speaking country is a member of the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and a popular stop-off location for cruise ships moving from the central Caribbean to Mexico and the US. Belize’s geographical variety and proximity to the US are making it an increasingly attractive location for US tourists. In addition, Belize’s constitutional links to the UK means that it benefits from good air links, facilitating tourism from the UK as well. As a result,
tourist arrivals to Belize rose by an impressive 8.5% y-o-y in the first six months of 2012, making it one of the Caribbean countries experiencing highest levels of growth so far in 2012. Caribbean Tourism Report Q4 2012 © Business Monitor International Ltd Page 6
Key Changes Made
BMI analyses the tourist arrivals across the Caribbean for the first half of 2012, assessing the drivers behind strong performance in some markets and weaker in others. BMI looks at the expanding hotel industry across the region, as groups such as Marriott plan to increase their presence in the Caribbean. BMI examines the financial performance of troubled Caribbean Airlines and the impact that the purchase of Air Jamaica has had on its financial standing.
Published: September 2012 No. of Pages: 37 Price: US $ 1175
Table of Contents
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis … 7
Caribbean Tourism SWOT 7
Caribbean Political SWOT … 7
Caribbean Economic SWOT . 8
Caribbean Business Environment SWOT .. 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals And Accommodation 9
Table: Arrivals And Accommodation, 2009-2016 (‘000) .. 9
Expenditure .. 10
Table: Tourist Expenditure, 2009-2016 .. 10
Table: Tourist Arrivals And Expenditure On Individual Islands, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) .. 10
Focus: Belize … 12
Market Overview – Travel . 14
Commercial Airlines 14
Global Oil Products Price Outlook .. 16
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 … 16
Market Overview – Hospitality .. 23
Cruise Industry 23
Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals, 2010-2011 23
Accommodation … 24
Luxury Hotels … 25
Global Assumptions . 26
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 .. 26
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 27
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 .. 27
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 28
Developed States .. 28
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) .. 29
Emerging Markets 30
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) . 31
Company Profiles . 32
Caribbean Airlines .. 32
Royal Caribbean Cruises 33
Meliá Hotels International .. 34
BMI Methodology .. 35
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .. 35
Tourism Industry .. 35
Sources. 36Table: Arrivals And Accommodation (‘)
Table: Tourist Expenditure
Table: Tourist Arrivals And Expenditure On Individual Islands (‘ unless stated)
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts
Table: Cruise Passenger Arrivals
Table: Global Assumptions
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts (% chg yoy)
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth (% chg yoy)
