BMI View: For a country keen to wean itself off of fossil fuels, the decision to phase out nuclear energy represents a fresh and unwelcome challenge. Gas consumption seems certain to grow more quickly than expected as demand for power rises – until the energy void can be filled through the expansion of renewable sources.
Germany Oil and Gas Market Report Q1 2012
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The main trends and developments we highlight in Germany’s Oil and Gas sector are:
Royal Dutch Shell has announced that it intends to close its Harburg refinery following a fruitless two-year search for a buyer. According to a January 2011 press release by Shell’s German unit, the company has decided it is impossible to sell the Harburg plant and it will therefore convert the main part of the facility into a fuels terminal. The base oil plant at the site will, however, be disassociated and will remain up for sale. Shell plans to continue operations at Harburg until Q212, after which it will begin converting the plant.
Gas consumption is now represents 23% of PED, accounting for 11% of power generation. Its share of the power market is rising fast and gas demand should rise. Our forecast is for demand to rise from an estimated 100.4bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 118.0bcm by 2016. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from 12.5bcm in 2011 to around 11.0bcm over the period.
German producer Wintershall is continuing to invest in domestic oil production and is now drilling the first of 16 new wells at its Emlichheim operations near the Dutch border. Over the next five years the company plans to sink 12 horizontal and four vertical wells. More than EUR60mn has been earmarked for investment. Wintershall currently produces around 2,800 barrels per day (b/d) in Emlichheim and the drilling programme should enable it to extend this level of output until at least 2016. On the basis of current calculations Emlichheim will continue to contribute to Germany’s crude oil supply for at least another 20 years.
The recent decision to eliminate nuclear power generation raises questions with regard to medium term hydrocarbons use, with both oil and gas likely to have a larger-than-expected share of overall energy demand and power generation. BMI is forecasting oil consumption of 2.51mn b/d in 2011, rising to 2.74mn b/d in 2016, requiring net imports of 2.69mn b/d by the end of the period.
Crude imports will cost the government some US$91.4bn in 2016, compared with an estimated US$90.6bn in 2011. The value of gas imports by the end of the forecast period is estimated at US$49.6bn, taking the total for combined crude oil and natural gas import costs to US$141.1bn.
At time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2011 of US$101.90 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$99.40/bbl in 2012. Global GDP in 2011 is forecast at 3.2%, down from 4.3% in 2010, reflecting slowing growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis. For 2012, growth is estimated at 3.6%.
- BMI Industry View
- SWOT Analysis
- Germany Oil and Gas SWOT
- Global Energy Market Outlook
- Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000b/d, 2009-2016
- Table: Global Oil Production, 000b/d, 2009-2016
- Regional Energy Market Outlook
- Oil Demand
- Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Oil Supply
- Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Developed Europe Refinery Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
- Gas Demand
- Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm)
- Gas Supply
- Table: Developed Europe Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm)
- Liquefied Natural Gas
- Table: Developed Europe LNG Gas Imports (Exports), 2009-2016 (bcm)
- Germany Energy Market Overview
- Industry Forecast Scenario
- Table: Germany Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts
- Oil and Gas Reserves
- Oil Supply And Demand
- Gas Supply And Demand
- LNG
- Refining and Oil Products Trade
- Revenues/Import Costs
- Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
- Oil And Gas Infrastructure
- Oil Refineries
- Table: Refineries In Germany
- Service Stations
- Oil Pipelines
- Oil Terminals
- Oil Storage
- Gas Pipelines
- Gas Storage
- LNG Terminals
- Competitive Landscape
- Executive Summary
- Table: Key Players – German Oil And Gas Sector
- Overview/State Role
- Licensing/Regulation
- Government Policy
- International Energy Relations
- Table: Key Upstream Players
- Table: Key Downstream Players
- Company Monitor
- Royal Dutch Shell
- BP
- Total
- ExxonMobil
- PKN Orlen
- OMV
- Gazprom – Summary
- Rhein Petroleum – Summary
- RWE – Summary
- E.ON – Summary
- Wintershall – Summary
- Others – Summary
- Appendix: Oil And Gas Long-Term Forecasts
- Regional Oil Demand
- Table: Developed Europe Oil Consumption (000 b/d)
- Regional Oil Supply
- Table: Developed Europe Oil Production (000b/d)
- Oil: Downstream
- Table: Developed Europe Refining Capacity (000b/d)
- Regional Gas Demand
- Table: Developed Europe Gas Consumption (bcm)
- Regional Gas Supply
- Table: Developed Europe Gas Production (bcm)
- Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
- Glossary Of Terms
- Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
- Ratings Overview
- Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
- Indicators
- Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
- Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
- BMI Methodology
- How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Energy Industry
- Cross checks
- Sources