Greece Autos Market Report Q1 2012

2011-12-28
Published : Dec-2011

With Greek consumers feeling the pinch of newly introduced higher taxes and already high vehicle ownership costs, we believe that a recovery in new vehicle sales is a long way off and unlikely at any time during the forecast period to 2016. The market reached its lowest point since 1985 in October 2011, thanks to a 35.7% year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction to 5,023 units, taking the 10 month cumulative sales down 35.7% y-o-y, to 131,037 units.

Greece Autos Market Report Q1 2012

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With domestic demand remaining weak, we have reversed our expectations for a return to positive growth in 2012, and instead expect positive growth from 2013. That will make the 2012 new vehicle market more than three times smaller than in 2007.

Growth from 2013 will be very modest. The fact that there has virtually been no foreign direct investment into Greece over the last decade and that productive capacity is almost depleted, we see little scope for robust economic recovery during the rest of the forecast period. The only upside will be the favourable base effects, which should help the market to return to 107,100 units by end-2016, remaining a far cry from the 306,800 units sold in 2007.

In what turns out to be the most encouraging development for the Greek autos market was the lifting of the ban on diesel engines cars in Athens and Thessaloniki in November 2011. However, we expect little upside to vehicle demand from the ruling as domestic dealerships are yet to stock these vehicles.

Additionally, costs of vehicle ownership continue to be high. As recently as May 2011, the government increased rates of the special luxury tax on new passenger cars. Such is the gloom that a lack of demand is prompting Greek leasing companies with large fleets to sell off their vehicles to foreign buyers, mainly from Belgium.

This lacklustre performance combined with the lack of domestic auto automotive manufacturing will mean that Greece will continue to be a significant underperformer in Europe. Placed at the bottom in BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings for the auto industry in Europe, Greece not only suffers from poor scores in the auto market, but also in terms of its country risk score.

SWOT Analysis
Greece Auto SWOT
Greece Political SWOT
Greece Economic SWOT
Greece Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), January-September 2011
Regional Overview
FTAs Will Boost Already Strong Import Sales
Business Environment Analysis
Table: BMI Industry Risk-Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Greece – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Greece Auto Sales – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Greece – Circulating Vehicles By Category, 2007
Table: Greece: Revised Taxes On Vehicle Purchases, 2010
Table: Greece Road Tax Revision, 2009
Passenger Cars
Table: Greece – Top 10 Players In The Passenger Car Segment, 2009-2010
Table: Greece – Passenger Car Sales By Segment
Commercial Vehicles
Table: Greece Commercial Vehicle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts
Table: Greece – Top 10 Players In The Light Commercial Vehicle Segment*, 2008-2010
Motorcycles
Table: Greece Motorcycle Segment – Historical Data And Forecasts
Company Monitor
Company Profiles
Toyota Hellas
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model
Sources
Filed in: Automotive
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