Hot Drinks in Serbia

2012-07-25
Published : Jul-2012

The 2008-2011 period was a very difficult one for both consumers and producers in the Serbian hot drinks market. While consumers were forced to reduce their spending on all non-essential grocery products (which includes most hot drinks) due to lower incomes, producers faced cash flow problems which forced them to limit their investment in new product launches, distribution and marketing support.

2011 brings optimism and a slow recovery for the hot drinks market

In early 2011, it was visible that the most difficult years of the economic crisis were over. Volume declines were reversed in many categories, with producers once again becoming more active in terms of launching new products and engaging in marketing activities. However, the Serbian hot drinks market was far from a complete recovery from the crisis in 2011. It is likely to be two further years before the market recovers completely.

Still space for new players

The competitive environment in the Serbian hot drinks market is still not as intense as it could be as in both tea and coffee a small number of companies command the majority share. Potential new players would unquestionably force existing companies to improve the quality of their offerings, expand their product portfolios and even visibly reduce their mark-ups. An increase in competition might be expected due to the arrival of new retailers that will bring in new companies and brands.

Retailing industry developing rapidly

Over the last five years the Serbian retailing industry has expanded rapidly, particularly modern channels such as chained supermarkets, hypermarkets and discounters which offer hot drinks at visibly lower prices than independent small grocers. The rapid development of the retailing industry has partially reduced the negative effects of the economic crisis as new channels offer more value-for-money products and work with lower mark-ups than small grocery retailers. It is expected that the retailing industry will continue to expand over the forecast period.

Slow but stable growth over the next five years

After a difficult period following the economic crisis the Serbian hot drinks market is expected to recover over 2012-2016, not only in terms of volume sales but also in increased consumption of higher quality brands following three years of a better performance from economy brands. However, coffee is facing saturation in Serbia, which could lead to stagnation in total volume terms in that category, thus dragging down the wider hot drinks market.

Published: July 2012
Price: US$1900

Table of Contents for this report cover:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Difficult years now behind the Serbian hot drinks market
2011 brings optimism and a slow recovery for the hot drinks market
Still space for new players
Retailing industry developing rapidly
Slow but stable growth over the next five years

MARKET DATA

Table 1 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2006-2011
Table 2 Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 3 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
Table 4 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
Table 5 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 6 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
Table 7 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
Table 8 Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 9 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2006-2011
Table 10 Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 11 Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
Table 12 Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
Table 13 Penetration of Private Label by Category 2006-2011
Table 14 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Distribution Format: % Analysis 2006-2011
Table 15 Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category and Distribution Format: % Analysis 2010
Table 16 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Breakdown 2011-2016
Table 17 Forecast Retail Vs Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 18 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
Table 19 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
Table 20 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 21 Forecast Retail Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016
Table 22 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
Table 23 Forecast Foodservice Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 24 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: Total Volume 2011-2016
Table 25 Forecast Total Sales of Hot Drinks by Category: % Total Volume Growth 2011-2016

APPENDIX
Production/Import/Export Data

DEFINITIONS

SOURCES
Summary 1 Research Sources

Hot Drinks in Serbia – Company Profiles

Fructus doo in Hot Drinks (Serbia)
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
COMPANY BACKGROUND
PRODUCTION
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 4 Fructus doo: Competitive Position 2011

Grand Prom ad in Hot Drinks (Serbia)
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
COMPANY BACKGROUND
PRODUCTION
Summary 7 Grand Prom ad: Production Statistics 2011
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 8 Grand Prom ad: Competitive Position 2011

Macval doo in Hot Drinks (Serbia)
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
COMPANY BACKGROUND
PRODUCTION
Summary 11 Macval doo: Production Statistics 2011
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 12 Macval doo: Competitive Position 2011

Strauss Adriatic doo in Hot Drinks (Serbia)
STRATEGIC DIRECTION
KEY FACTS
COMPANY BACKGROUND
PRODUCTION
COMPETITIVE POSITIONING
Summary 15 Strauss Adriatic doo: Competitive Position 2011

Coffee in Serbia – Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS
In 2011, coffee in Serbia recovered somewhat following two difficult years as a result of the economic crisis. Serbian consumers believed the worst is over and consequently returned to pre-crisis purchasing and consumption patterns. However, coffee in Serbia is a saturated category and so growth in 2011 was not particularly strong.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
Serbian coffee in 2011 continued to be led by domestic company Grand Prom ad with a 47% retail value share. This company was established in 1997 when there were no big players in the Serbian market. In a very short time, Grand Prom filled the gap in the Serbian market and increased its distribution network to cover the entire country. For almost a decade, the company exclusively produced fresh coffee products while over the last 4-5 years it has sought to adapt to consumer demand by adding instant coffee to its portfolio.

PROSPECTS
An increase in coffee volume sales is not anticipated in Serbia over the forecast period. Instead of growth of the category as a whole, a shift within the category is expected. The main trend in the Serbian coffee category over 2011-2016 will be a further switch from fresh coffee to instant coffee.

CATEGORY DATA

Table 27 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2006-2011
Table 28 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2006-2011
Table 29 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 30 Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
Table 31 Instant Coffee by Type: % Value Breakdown 2007-2011
Table 32 Coffee Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
Table 33 Coffee Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
Table 34 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Volume 2011-2016
Table 35 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: Value 2011-2016
Table 36 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 37 Forecast Retail Sales of Coffee by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Other Hot Drinks in Serbia – Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS
Other hot drinks in Serbia remains fairly underdeveloped, predominantly due to a lack of awareness of these products but also a lack of competition in the category. Fewer than 20 producers are present in the category, with none seriously focusing on these types of hot drinks. Traditionally, Serbian consumers see basic cocoa powder as something that everybody tries during their lifetime, while other product types in the category are even less popular. Only two categories are currently present in Serbian other hot drinks – chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks and other plant-based hot drinks.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
The competitive environment in other hot drinks remained underdeveloped in 2011. The category was led by Biogran GmbH with its Inka cereal-based brand.

PROSPECTS
Other hot drinks in Serbia is expected to continue to grow over the forecast period. While chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks is expected to perform well with an off-trade volume CAGR of around 4%, other plant-based hot drinks is anticipated a CAGR of around 8%. In addition, it is possible that new categories could emerge over the next five years (such as non-chocolate-based flavoured powder drinks or malt-based hot drinks) to boost sales of other hot drinks as a whole.

CATEGORY DATA

Table 38 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2006-2011
Table 39 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2006-2011
Table 40 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 41 Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
Table 42 Other Hot Drinks Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
Table 43 Other Hot Drinks Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
Table 44 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Volume 2011-2016
Table 45 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: Value 2011-2016
Table 46 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 47 Forecast Retail Sales of Other Hot Drinks by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

Tea in Serbia – Category Analysis

HEADLINES

TRENDS
In spite of the fact that tea has been a traditional drink in Serbia (especially herbal teas) for a long time, industrially produced branded tea remains a relatively fast growing category. This is mainly due to a shift from domestically produced (homemade) tea to commercial brands. In previous decades most Serbian consumers made their own teas due to the widespread availability of various herbs and flowers. However, over the last 10 years Serbian lifestyles have changed, with consumers having less time for such activities. Thus, it has become more convenient to purchase packaged tea in a grocery outlet rather than make one’s own blends. Additionally, the range of packaged teas in retail outlets has increased considerably, giving consumers a wide range to choose from.

COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
The Serbian tea category in 2011 was led by domestic producer Fructus doo with an 18% value share. The company offers a wide range of standard quality brands and distributes them via both traditional channels such as independent small grocers and modern channels such as supermarket/hypermarket chains. Additionally, in 2010 Fructus doo purchased a production line for making higher quality teas from Grand Prom ad which decided to withdraw from tea and focus solely on coffee. This reinforced Fructus doo’s position in Serbian tea and enabled the company to increase its share by more than one percentage point.

PROSPECTS
Tea in Serbia is expected to continue to perform well over the forecast period as the shift from homemade teas to packaged teas continues. In addition, the choice of flavours and packaging formats is expected to increase, which will attract consumers who rarely drank tea in the past.

CATEGORY DATA

Table 48 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2006-2011
Table 49 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2006-2011
Table 50 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2006-2011
Table 51 Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2006-2011
Table 52 Tea Company Shares by Retail Value 2007-2011
Table 53 Tea Brand Shares by Retail Value 2008-2011
Table 54 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Volume 2011-2016
Table 55 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: Value 2011-2016
Table 56 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Volume Growth 2011-2016
Table 57 Forecast Retail Sales of Tea by Category: % Value Growth 2011-2016

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