Kazakhstan has near-term issues because of its inadequate power supply and longer-term decisions to make over nuclear power. Demand growth is healthy, reflecting economic expansion. Current plans for new generating capacity continue to focus on conventional thermal sources, with gas taking the lead thanks to the state’s substantial domestic resources. Asian influence is growing, as China and South Korea enter the power arena. However, Russia may emerge as the partner of choice, if Kazakhstan opts to bring nuclear capacity online.
In spite of Kazakhstan’s vast and largely untapped gas reserves, the country’s power industry is seeking to avoid overdependence on the fuel in electricity generation, and has a diversified policy involving coal, hydropower and renewables. Nuclear is currently side-lined, but may well emerge as a component of the power portfolio over the long term thanks to huge uranium wealth. System losses are considerable and improved efficiency could bridge the existing supply/demand gap. Ongoing high level investment in generation, transmission and distribution infrastructure is therefore necessary, and foreign partners, largely from Asia and Russia, are being lined up for the key projects.
Key trends and recent developments in the Kazakh electricity market include:
The likely average annual growth rate for Kazakhstan power consumption is 4.86% between 2012 and 2021. This represents 76% of BMI’s real GDP growth forecast (averaging 6.37% over the same period), and reflects the relative immaturity of the energy market. Growth in power generation over the next ten years will average 4.58% per annum, which will prove insufficient to increase market coverage and ensure adequate supply.
According to government forecasts, the production of electricity is set to increase to 150.2 terrawatt hours (TWh) by 2030 (broadly in line with BMI assumptions), with power demand rising to almost 145TWh over the same period. Existing investment plans in the power sector amount to KZT1,147bn to 2015, with an estimated KZT9,500bn needed between 2012 and 2030. The share of renewable resources in power generation is expected to rise by 11% by 2030.
State grid operator Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company (KEGOC) has already approved a long-term investment strategy, under which a total of KZT530bn will be invested by 2025. KEGOC has embarked upon several projects, including the rehabilitation of substations, transmission lines and other equipment, building a new substation near Almaty, and power lines to the Moinak power plant. KEGOC is now considering building a new 500 kilovolt (kV) northsouth power line and new transmission lines, in order to connect the west Kazakh regions of Uralsk, Atyrau and Mangystau to the national grid. Kazakhstan will probably delay its planned stake sale in KEGOC until 2013, Bakytzhan Sagintayev, minister of trade and economic development said in a March 2012 statement.
Published : May 2012 No. of Pages : 43 Price: US$1175
Table of Content
Executive Summary . 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Kazakhstan Power SWOT .. 6
Global Industry Overview … 7
Regional Industry Overview . 11
Industry Forecast Scenario .. 15
Kazakhstan Snapshot (Macro) .. 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector .. 15
Kazakhstan Forecast Scenario .. 15
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity .. 15
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 .. 15
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 17
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 19
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 .. 20
Electricity Consumption 23
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 … 23
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 23
Transmission And Distribution, Imports And Exports … 25
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 25
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 25
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016.. 25
Table: Kazakhstan Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 … 25
Key Policies/Market Structure .. 27
Regulation and Competition 27
Pricing . 27
Key Projects Database . 28
Table: Kazakhstan Key Projects – Power Plants And Transmission Grids .. 28
Risk/Reward Ratings . 29
CEE Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 29
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 31
Kazakhstan Power Risk/Reward Ratings . 32
Rewards … 32
Risks . 33
Competitive Landscape 34
KEGOC 34
AES .. 34
Glossary of Terms . 35
Table: Glossary of Terms . 35
Methodology And Sources … 36
Industry Forecasts … 36
Power Industry – Data Methodology … 37
Generation and Consumption Data . 37
Electricity Generation Capacity Data .. 38
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology … 39
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 41
Sources 42Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data . 15
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector . 15
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 15
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 17
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 19
Table: Kazakhstan Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 20
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 . 23
Table: Kazakhstan Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 23
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 25
Table: Kazakhstan Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Table: Kazakhstan Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016. 25
Table: Kazakhstan Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021 . 25
Table: Kazakhstan Key Projects – Power Plants And Transmission Grids . 28
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) . 31
Table: Glossary of Terms . 35
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators . 41