Near Field Communication (NFC) Market to 2016 – Increased Availability of NFC Embedded Handsets Key for Higher Market Penetration

2012-03-05
Published : Mar-2012

Bluetooth (BT) has become a standard feature in current phones and the majority of smartphones that are currently released, feature BT chips. Bluetooth 4.0 (BLE) was launched in November 2011 and this version of BT is expected to lead handset manufacturers to opt for dual mode chips that support both BLE and the older BT technology. Handsets are already integrated with Wi-Fi, Frequency Modulation (FM) and Global Positioning System (GPS) chips and it is expected that NFC will also be integrated in BT chipsets. Integrations such as these will reduce space requirements and the cost per unit. BT chips are also used in the automotive, medical and healthcare markets; however, the mobile phone market is the primary consumer of BT chips, and shipments of these reached 1.2 billion units in 2011. BT embedded handset sales are expected to reach 2.4 billion units by 2016, and the majority of these phones will also feature NFC.

At present, the retail industry is the main application area for mobile commerce. Many retailers, such as Woolworths and Coles in Australia, Casino in France, coffee chain Insomnia in Ireland, fashion house Miroglio in Italy, as well as Starbucks and McDonald’s globally, have already enabled or announced plans to support NFC-based mobile payments. Although the majority of these transactions are currently limited to $25-$50 by different banking companies, this does not pose a problem as users generally purchase low value goods from these outlets. According to GBI Research, strong growth in NFC-based mobile commerce is expected to result in revenues of $300 billion in mobile transactions by 2015. Features such as security, ease of use and accessibility are expected to increase mobile transactions and will be a key driver for NFC adoption across different markets.

Near Field Communication (NFC) Market

Published: March 2012
No. of Pages: 83

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A key restraint for the widespread adoption of NFC is the lack of handsets and terminals available that support NFC-based transactions. The availability of handsets with an NFC feature is dependent on market demand and the availability of NFC terminals when mobiles are used for payments. Many merchants and retailers plan to upgrade their infrastructure if there is widespread NFC adoption among consumers, as Point Of Sale (POS) terminals for NFC use are costly. This unavoidable inter-dependence among merchants and handset manufacturers is creating slow market growth. Although companies such as Orange, AT&T, Nokia, Samsung, Starbucks and Gemalto have begun trials and pledged support for an NFC rollout, merchants have not yet upgraded their POS terminals as aggressively as expected.

GBI Research’s new report, “Near Field Communication (NFC) Market to 2016 – Increased Availability of NFC Embedded Handsets Key for Higher Market Penetration”, provides key information and analysis on the NFC market. NFC is a wireless or contactless communication technology based on International Organization for Standardization (ISO), European Computers Manufacturers Association (ECMA) and European Telecommunications Standards Institute (ETSI) standards. It is comparable with other existing technologies such as MIFARE and FeliCa. The main application areas of NFC-based integrated circuits (ICs) are for mobile-based payments in the retail segment and transportation ticketing.

The report covers the latest information and research efforts of a number of NFC companies and organizations around the world. The report provides information on the market size of different NFC secure element (SE) form factors and provides analysis of the key NFC end user market segments. It also provides a comparative analysis of NFC and MIFARE, FeliCa, Square and Bluetooth (BT). The report discusses the NFC ecosystem and its partners, and the different business models that could be potentially deployed. Expert views and comments from various organizations and companies, such as GSMA, Sequent Software Inc, EMVCo and Comprion GmbH, are also included.

This report is built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis by GBI Research’s team of industry experts.

Table of Contents

1 Table of Contents 3
1.1 List of Tables 5
1.2 List of Figures 6

2 Introduction 7
2.1 GBI Research Report Guidance 7

3 Near Field Communication – Overview 8
3.1 NFC – Technology Overview 8
3.2 NFC – Development Timeline 9
3.3 NFC – Technology Standards 9
3.4 NFC – Technology Comparison 11
3.4.1 FeliCa Cards 11
3.4.2 MIFARE 11
3.4.3 Bluetooth 4.0 12
3.4.4 Square Payments 12
3.4.5 Contactless Card Payments 12
3.4.6 Bump Technology 13
3.5 NFC Device Integration Form Factors 13
3.5.1 MicroSD Type 13
3.5.2 Handset Embedded 13
3.5.3 SIM Integrated 13
3.5.4 Sticker Type 13

4 NFC Ecosystem – Overview 14
4.1 Major Ecosystem Partners 14
4.1.1 Handset Manufacturers 14
4.1.2 Mobile Network Operator 14
4.1.3 MCPA SP 14
4.1.4 Trusted Service Manager 15
4.2 Business Model 15

5 NFC IC Market – Market Dynamics 16
5.1 Market Drivers 17
5.1.1 NFC to be Integrated with BT and Wi-Fi to Enhance Security 17
5.1.2 Collaborations between MNOs, Financial Services Providers and Handset Manufacturers 19
5.1.3 Increasing Use of NFC in Transportation Ticketing Segment 20
5.1.4 Mobile Commerce Advantages to Act as an Incentive for NFC Adoption 20
5.1.5 Decrease in Average Selling Prices (ASPs) of NFC ICs 21
5.2 Market Restraints 22
5.2.1 Lack of Availability of NFC Handsets and Terminals is a Challenge 22
5.2.2 Multiple Ecosystem Partnerships have Led to Slow Technology Deployment 22
5.3 Market Challenges 23
5.3.1 Choosing a Suitable Business Model 23
5.3.2 Slow Consumer Adoption Rates in the US and Europe 23
5.3.3 Support from Government Organizations Needed to Implement NFC 24

6 Global NFC IC Market – Analysis and Forecast Based on Key End User Applications, 2010-2016 25
6.1 Retail – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 26
6.2 Transport – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 28
6.3 Marketing – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 30
6.4 Identity Cards – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 32
6.5 Others – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 33
6.5.1 Automotive 33
6.5.2 Peer to Peer 34

7 Global NFC IC Market – Analysis and Forecasts Based on Key Regions, 2010-2016 35
7.1 Europe – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 36
7.2 North America – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 37
7.3 Asia Pacific – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 38
7.3.1 Australia and New Zealand – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 39

8 Global NFC IC Market – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 40
8.1 NFC IC Revenues – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 40
8.2 NFC IC Volumes – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 41
8.3 NFC Enabled Mobile Handsets – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 42
8.4 NFC IC Device Integration Form Factors – Analysis and Forecast, 2010-2016 43

9 Global NFC IC Market, Key Company Profiles 47
9.1 Sony Corporation 47
9.1.1 Sony Corporation – Business Description 47
9.1.2 Sony Corporation – Key Products and Services 48
9.1.3 Sony Corporation – SWOT Analysis 49
9.1.4 Sony Corporation – Recent Developments 52
9.2 NXP Semiconductors 52
9.2.1 NXP Semiconductors – Business Description 52
9.2.2 NXP Semiconductors – Key Products and Services 53
9.2.3 NXP Semiconductors – SWOT Analysis 53
9.2.4 NXP Semiconductors – Recent Developments 55
9.3 Nokia Corporation 56
9.3.1 Nokia Corporation – Business Description 57
9.3.2 Nokia Corporation – Key Products and Services 57
9.3.3 Nokia Corporation – SWOT Analysis 58
9.4 MasterCard Worldwide 61
9.4.1 MasterCard Worldwide – Business Description 61
9.4.2 MasterCard Worldwide – Key Products and Services 62
9.4.3 MasterCard Worldwide – SWOT Analysis 63
9.5 Identive Group Inc 65
9.5.1 Identive Group Inc – Business Description 66
9.5.2 Identive Group Inc – Key Products and Services 67
9.6 Oberthur Technologies 67
9.6.1 Oberthur Technologies Inc – Business Description 68
9.6.2 Oberthur Technologies Inc – Key Products and Services 68
9.6.3 Oberthur Technologies Inc – SWOT Analysis 69
9.7 Gemalto N.V 72
9.7.1 Gemalto N.V. – Business Description 72
9.7.2 Gemalto N.V. – Key Products and Services 73
9.7.3 Gemalto N.V. – SWOT Analysis 75

10 Global NFC IC Market – Key Organization Profiles 77
10.1 EMVCo 77
10.2 NFC Forum 77
10.3 Mobey Forum 78
10.4 Smart Card Alliance 78
10.5 GSMA 79

11 Appendix 80
11.1 Market Analysis 80
11.1.1 Product Types Covered 80
11.1.2 Regions Covered 80
11.2 About GBI Research 80
11.3 Abbreviations 80
11.4 Methodology 81
11.4.1 Market Size Estimates 81
11.4.2 Breakdown Estimates 81
11.4.3 Coverage 81
11.4.4 Secondary Research 82
11.4.5 Primary Research 82
11.4.6 Expert Panel Validation 82
11.5 Contact Us 82
11.6 Disclaimer 83

List of Tables

Table 1: Comparison of Wireless Technologies and NFC 8
Table 2: NFC Tag Formats 10
Table 3: Bluetooth Embedded Handset Shipments (bn), Global, 2008-2016 17
Table 4: NFC Pilots and Project Launches, Global 19
Table 5: NFC IC, Global, ASPs ($) 2010-2016 21
Table 6: End User Segment, Global, Market Share (%), 2011 25
Table 7: NFC IC Market, Retail Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 27
Table 8: NFC Trials in the Transportation Segment, Global 28
Table 9: NFC IC Market, Transportation Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 29
Table 10: Smart Poster Use Cases, Global 30
Table 11: NFC IC Market, Marketing Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 31
Table 12: NFC IC Market, Identity Cards Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 32
Table 13: NFC IC Market, Others, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 34
Table 14: NFC IC Market, Global, Revenue Share by Region (%), 2011 35
Table 15: NFC IC Market, Europe, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 36
Table 16: NFC IC Market, North America, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 37
Table 17: NFC IC Market, Asia Pacific, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 38
Table 18: NFC IC Market, Australia and New Zealand, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 39
Table 19: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016 40
Table 20: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 41
Table 21: NFC Enabled Handset ICs Market Comparison, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 42
Table 22: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 44
Table 23: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016 45
Table 24: Sony Corporation, Key Facts, 2010 47
Table 25: Sony Corporation, Key Products and Services 48
Table 26: Sony Corporation, SWOT Analysis 49
Table 27: NXP Semiconductors, Key Facts, 2010 52
Table 28: NXP Semiconductors, Key Products and Services 53
Table 29: NXP Semiconductors, SWOT Analysis 53
Table 30: Nokia Corporation, Key Facts, 2010 56
Table 31: Nokia Corporation, Key Products and Services 57
Table 32: Nokia Corporation, SWOT Analysis 58
Table 33: MasterCard Worldwide, Key Facts, 2010 61
Table 34: MasterCard Worldwide, Key Products and Services 62
Table 35: MasterCard Worldwide, SWOT Analysis 63
Table 36: Identive Group Inc, Key Facts, 2010 65
Table 37: Identive Group Inc, Key Products and Services 67
Table 38: Oberthur Technologies, Key Facts, 2010 67
Table 39: Oberthur Technologies, Key Products and Services 68
Table 40: Oberthur Technologies, SWOT Analysis 69
Table 41: Gemalto N.V, Key Facts, 2010 72
Table 42: Gemalto N.V, Key Products and Services 73
Table 43: Gemalto N.V, SWOT Analysis 75
Table 44: NFC Forum, Key Facts, 2011 77
Table 45: Mobey Forum, Key Facts, 2011 78
Table 46: Smart Card Alliance, Key Facts, 2011 78
Table 47: GSMA, Key Facts, 2011 79
Table 48: NFC Market, Abbreviations 80

List of Figures

Figure 1: NFC Development, 2003-2011 9
Figure 2: NFC Handset Functional Architecture 10
Figure 3: NFC Ecosystem 14
Figure 4: Near Field Communication, Market Dynamics, 2012 16
Figure 5: Bluetooth Embedded Handset Shipments (bn), Global, 2008-2016 17
Figure 6: NFC IC, Global, ASPs ($) 2010-2016 21
Figure 7: End User Segment, Global, Market Share (%), 2011 25
Figure 8: NFC IC Market, Retail Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 26
Figure 9: NFC IC Market, Transportation Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 29
Figure 10: NFC IC Market, Marketing Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 31
Figure 11: NFC IC Market, Identity Cards Segment, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 32
Figure 12: NFC IC Market, Others, Global, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 34
Figure 13: NFC IC Market, Global, Revenue Share by Region (%), 2011 35
Figure 14: NFC IC Market, Europe, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 36
Figure 15: NFC IC Market, North America, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 37
Figure 16: NFC IC Market, Asia Pacific, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 38
Figure 17: NFC IC Market, Australia and New Zealand, Sales Revenue ($m) and Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 39
Figure 18: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016 40
Figure 19: NFC IC Market, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 41
Figure 20: NFC Enabled Handset ICs Market Comparison, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 42
Figure 21: NFC IC Device Integration Form Factors, Global, Market Share (%), 2011 and 2016 43
Figure 22: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Volume (m), 2010-2016 44
Figure 23: NFC IC Integration Form Factors, Global, Sales Revenue ($bn), 2010-2016 45

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