BMI View: Oman does not have the massive resource endowment of its Arab Gulf neighbours, but the country does retain significant upstream growth potential, besides benefiting from its openness to foreign investment in the upstream segment. The absence of significant political unrest in Oman bodes well for investor perceptions. Exploratory interest has recently been limited largely to smaller independents – although UK major BP has earmarked as much as US$15bn for the development of tight gas reserves in the country.
We highlight these trends and developments in Oman’s oil and gas sector:
1.BMI sees Oman’s proven oil reserves rising from 5.5bn barrels (bbl) in 2011 to 5.9bn bbl by 2013/14, but falling to less than 5.3bn bbl over the long-term forecast period to 2021. The success of enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is critical both in terms of raising estimates of recoverable oil, and in terms of oil production levels.
2.Crude oil and gas liquids production in 2011 is believed to have reached 889,000 barrels per day (b/d), with a very marginal increase likely in 2012. Medium-term investment plans point to a 2014 output peak in excess of 930,000b/d.
3.While conventional gas reserves are seen declining, the potential of BP’s proposed tight gas recovery scheme could result in an abrupt reversal of the trend later in the current decade. BP believes that there may be as much as 2,800bn cubic metres (bcm) of tight gas in place within its Block 61 concession in Oman. The extent of recoverable gas is not known, but BP may invest up to US$15bn in the project..
4.The planned expansion of the Sohar refinery will boost oil consumption, and we see crude oil exports falling over the long term, to as little as 574,000b/d by 2021, in the absence of new oil discoveries that can be brought onstream during the period. At the time of writing, we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$99.38/bbl, falling to US$97.23/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 3.2%, up from an assumed 3.1% in 2011 reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and an uncertain eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.7%. 

Oman Oil and Gas Industry Q2 2012

Published : June 2012                   No. of Pages : 70                    Price:US$1175

Table of Content

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis . 6
Oman Oil and Gas SWOT .. 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9) … 9
Global Oil Consumption, 000’s B/d, 2009-2016 .. 11
Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 .. 12
Regional Energy Market Outlook .. 13
Oman Energy Market Overview 15
Table: Oman – Upstream Projects Database … 16
Industry Forecast Scenario … 17
Table: Industry Summary Data, 2008-2016 . 17
Table: Industry Summary Data, 2013-2021 . 18
Oil and Gas Reserves 19
Oil Supply and Demand 21
Gas Supply And Demand .. 24
LNG .. 25
Refining And Oil Products Trade .. 25
Revenues/Import Costs.. 26
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario . 26
Oil and Gas Infrastructure . 27
Oil Refineries 27
Table: Refineries In Oman … 27
LNG Terminals . 28
Table: LNG Terminals In Oman .. 28
Gas Pipelines 28
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings … 29
Middle East Upstream Business Environment Ratings 30
Middle East Downstream Business Environment Ratings 30
Downstream Scores .. 31
Competitive Landscape . 32
Executive Summary … 32
Table: Key Companies In Oman’s Energy Sector 33
Overview/State Role .. 33
Licensing And Regulation 33
International Energy Relations 34
Table: Key Upstream Players .. 35
Table: Key Downstream Players . 35
Company Monitor … 36
Petroleum Development Oman (PDO) .. 36
Shell Oman Marketing Company .. 39
Oman Oil Company (OOC) .. 41
Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) . 44
RAK Petroleum . 46
CNPC 49
Oman Refineries And Petrochemicals Company – Summary … 51
OOCEP – Summary . 51
Total – Summary .. 51
BP – Summary . 51
MOL – Summary .. 52
PTTEP – Summary .. 52
Petrogas – Summary 53
Tethys Oil – Summary .. 53
Circle Oil – Summary .. 54
Petroci/Rex Oil and Gas – Summary … 54
Others – Summary … 55
Table : Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016 … 56
Table : Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 … 56
Table : Oil Production, (000b/d)2008-2016 … 57
Table : Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 … 57
Table : Refining Capacity,(000b/d) 2008-2016 58
Table : Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021 … 59
Table : Gas Consumption, (bcm)2008-2016 59
Table : Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021 … 60
Table : Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016… 60
Table : Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021… 61
Table: Net LNG Exports (bcm) 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts . 62
Glossary Of Terms . 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 64
Ratings Overview .. 64
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure … 65
Indicators .. 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 66
BMI Methodology … 68
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts … 68
Energy Industry 68
Cross checks . 69
Sources . 69

Table: Oman – Upstream Projects Database . 16

Table: Industry Summary Data, 2008-2016 . 17

Table: Industry Summary Data, 2013-2021 . 18

Table: Refineries In Oman . 27

Table: LNG Terminals In Oman . 28

Table: Key Companies In Oman’s Energy Sector . 33

Table: Key Upstream Players . 35

Table: Key Downstream Players . 35

Table : Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016 . 56

Table : Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021 . 56

Table : Oil Production, (000b/d)2008-2016 . 57

Table : Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021 . 57

Table : Refining Capacity,(000b/d) 2008-2016 . 58

Table : Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021 . 59

Table : Gas Consumption, (bcm)2008-2016 . 59

Table : Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021 . 60

Table : Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016. 60

Table : Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021. 61

Table: Net LNG Exports (bcm) . 61

Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure . 65

Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology . 65

Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology . 66